Republican Civil War

With the 2022 midterm elections coming to a close and Donald Trump announcing his run for a second term, it has become very clear for all of us, American or not, that the next Presidential election is massively important in regards to the future of the United States and to the world in general. Though, a new kind of feud has been brewing between the ex-president and his former ally, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida. Recently, Trump has been calling him, “Ron DeSanctimonius.” So, what is happening and how could this affect the upcoming Presidential election? 


Let’s first begin with discussing the 2022 midterms. Trump and other supporting Republicans made predictions about a so-called “Red Wave.” In other words, there were strong hopes for Republican victories aplenty, bringing the Democrat party a crushing loss. But those predictions did not come into fruition. In a surprising twist, the Democrats managed to keep their hold on the Senate, which will make passing legislation much more difficult for Republican politicians. Specifically, many pro-Trump politicians lost in the midterms to Democrats, Kari Lake (Arizona) and Dr. Oz (Philadelphia) to name a few. In the words of a BBC article, the supposed “Republican ‘red wave’” that was so hyped up is now “looking more like a ripple.” Not to say that the Democrats were victorious in any sense, as they still lost the House of Congress to the Republicans, along with many other elections across the United States. Overall, the midterm elections were neither a victory for the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party, it was mid-way to say the least. Despite this, many Republicans right now are furious at the lack of success. And the fingers were being pointed towards…Donald Trump.


“But hold on!” I hear you asking, “I thought the Republican party was in the palm of Trump’s hand. Why is there suddenly animosity directed towards him from his supposed allies?” Well my dear reader, I’m so glad you asked! There have been Republicans who did not support Trump from the very beginning, such as Mitt Romney or the late John McCain. Now, after many former Trump supporters saw how badly pro-Trump candidates performed in the midterms, some more Republicans are voicing criticism and opposition towards the 45th President of the United States. And many are now voicing early endorsements for another Republican, one Ron DeSantis. Ron DeSantis is a far-right leaning governor of Florida and previously voiced support for Trump. DeSantis has been involved in infamous policies, one of them being the Don’t Say Gay Bill. In Florida, he has a huge support base among Republicans. He is also respected by other Republicans nationally as well. With his growing popularity, people have been rumouring about the possibility of him running for the top seat in 2024. Though DeSantis has yet to announce whether he is doing a Presidential campaign or not, it is widely speculated that he will. If that’s the case, he will be running against Donald Trump for becoming the Republican presidential nominee. Predictably, Donald Trump’s ego did not take the realisation of possible opposition well. Aside from the already mentioned nickname, Trump described DeSantis as “an average Republican governor with great public relations,” and bragged about how he helped build DeSantis’s political popularity, according to Sky News. As expected, Trump wanted the attention to be pulled back towards him, but this is currently being threatened by the Florida governor along with several other Republicans. 


So, where do we go from here? Well, it is hard to accurately predict anything, let alone politics. But we could at least try. Let’s say during the 2024 campaign for President of the United States, Trump is running against DeSantis for being the Republican candidate. This could apply to any other Republican candidate by the way, Ron DeSantis is just one of Trump’s possible opponents. Let us imagine that in the Republican primary, Ron DeSantis claims victory over Donald Trump. Of course, it would be most likely for Trump to not take that well, along with his still huge fanbase. Trump would probably organise a huge rally where he would address his ever devoted supporters. He would proceed to say that if his supporters were truly loyal to him, then they would not vote for Ron DeSantis. And if he doesn’t say anything along those lines, we should remember that Trump’s supporters are fervent in their loyalty to him. If Trump doesn’t say anything, then most of his supporters would not vote for DeSantis anyway. Now what? Well, DeSantis could have a real risk of losing the Presidency to the Democrat candidate. Now for the other scenario, Trump wins the primary instead. However, the same thing in the previous scenario would happen, with the non-Trump supporting Republicans refusing to vote for Trump instead of Trump supporters refusing to vote for DeSantis. It’s a win-win scenario for the Democrat Party.


Why would I predict this? In the 2016 election, the same scenario happened to the Democrats. Supporters of Bernie Sanders, along with some other Democratic candidates, not wanting to vote for Hillary Clinton, opted to refuse to vote instead. To be specific, this “I’m not voting” attitude was incredibly common among people who were unhappy with both Republican and Democrat candidates. Now, while Hillary Clinton did win the popular vote (something Trump loves to doubt), Trump won due to the Electoral College, otherwise a flawed electoral system with racist and discriminatory undertones which I do NOT have time to go into total detail about. Point is, vital voters who could have won over key states for the Democrats did not vote and it was a huge mistake. And it appears history could repeat itself, only for the Republicans to draw the shorter straw. Though, it should be made clear that anything could happen between now and the campaign, so please only consider these predictions as a possibility and not as a vision into the future.


What should you take away from this? For those who don’t have American citizenship and/or cannot vote, the best advice I could give to you is to, like everyone, be aware and verify everything you read about important events like this. For my fellow Americans who can vote, or you know someone who can vote, then please VOTE! I know this has been a repetitive message but it’s true. Voting is what could decide the path this world will go down, and not voting could risk the consequences. Even if you don’t necessarily like the candidates representing your party or ideology, you should still vote. Do not make the same mistake made back in 2016. Please, vote for what’s right. Vote, vote, VOTE!